The short answer

Separate fixed monthly costs from variable costs that move with sales. Divide fixed costs by the contribution margin ratio, then stress-test the result against realistic capacity and seasonality.

Step by step

Work through the decision

  1. 01List fixed operating costs
  2. 02Estimate blended variable-cost percentage
  3. 03Calculate contribution margin ratio
  4. 04Estimate break-even sales
  5. 05Translate sales into covers, checks and service periods

Common mistakes

  • Treating all labor as fixed or variable
  • Ignoring owner compensation and debt
  • Using best-month sales mix
  • Accepting a result the restaurant cannot physically produce

Working checklist